Potential impacts of a trucking industry recession

Does a recession affect the trucking industry? In a general recession, where people are buying fewer goods and spending overall is decreasing, that can impact the trucking industry negatively, as well. Currently, in Q2 of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the gross domestic product value increased at an annual rate of 3% year-over-year and has increased every quarter since 2023.

In regards to a recession in the trucking industry specifically, any trucking-specific recession the industry has been experiencing is expected to end this year. In July 2024, CNBC reported freight volume was up 30% year-over-year in June 2024, pointing to an end of the trucking industry recession. Also, an increase in orders coupled with a reduction in trucking capacity means positive business for most truck operators. Retail orders are on the rise, truck stocks are up, and discount fuels all indicate strength in the industry.

If a trucking industry recession were to occur, some things to be aware of across stakeholders include:

Trucking companies: Profitability could decrease. Companies may have to consolidate and turn to layoffs or sales. Some owner-operators and companies could experience bankruptcies.
Truck drivers: In a trucking recession, job security and employment opportunities could diminish. Wages could fluctuate and lead to less income.
Customers and clients: A trucking recession could increase transportation costs and lead to potential delays in goods.

Non-essential consumer goods industries, and the truck companies that work for them, could be particularly vulnerable in a trucking recession. Trucking companies can diversify their client base to build in protections, create sustainable growth strategies, and hire smartly to stay lean should a recession occur.

Tips and insights for industry employees

Recessions can impact any industry. For truck drivers, there are many ways to stay agile and prepared, no matter what happens. To navigate an evolving economic landscape, truck drivers and industry workers can focus on the following.

Skill development: Engaging in continuous learning and specialization can help trucking industry professionals stay up-to-date on the latest technology and develop specific in-demand skills. This can help trucking professionals stay competitive in the labor market, even in a recession. An example of a specialized trucking certification is a hazardous materials certification.
Job market awareness: It’s helpful to pay attention to hiring trends and shifts in demand, regarding particular specializations, education, and certifications employers are looking for. You can talk with your own employer to learn what type of skills you can develop to grow within the company, which could make you a more marketable candidate, in general.
Career advancement: Even during economic downturns, employment and growth opportunities exist. Maintain a strong professional network, including on sites like LinkedIn, so your contacts can keep you in mind for relevant positions. Continually update your resume as you develop your experience and skills, so you can share your most recent work experience when you’re ready to apply for advanced roles.

It's also helpful to connect with a mentor while you’re employed, so you can learn how they got to their position and what they’d recommend for your own career journey. Create a career development plan with your supervisor, so you can map out your career goals and align your training to stay on track.